Afbeelding
Growth in a climate-safe world requires major investments in sustainable transport and accommodations, as well as measures to limit the growth of particularly long-haul flights. Flying holidays within and between continents is still possible, but their numbers will not grow anymore until 2050, researched ETFI with CELTH, BUas and NBTC, commissioned by the Travel Foundation.
A flourishing tourism sector with true zero emissions
The core of the research consists of an exploration of future scenarios in which the effect of 40 climate interventions on emissions from the tourism sector is determined. The report translated the aims of the global initiative, the Glasgow Declaration on Climate Action in Tourism, to a vision of a flourishing tourism sector that achieves true zero emissions by 2050.
The Travel Foundation, therefore, call on all companies involved in tourism and organizations to sign and implement the Glasgow Declaration for Climate Action and contribute to the realization of the zero emissions scenario.
Trillions of investments needed
The researchers have combined a range of interventions and policies to and concluded that only one far-reaching Tourism Decarbonisation Scenario (TDS) can meet the Glasgow Declaration goals. To do this, the sector must invest trillions of dollars worldwide in reducing CO2 emissions. That may seem like a lot, but it can already be achieved by investing 2% to 3% of turnover in emission-free road and rail transport, electric zero-emissions accommodation and the production of e-fuels.
Also, the aviation sector needs to invest trillions to develop a new range of aircraft powered by combinations of hydrogen, fuel cells and electric engines. If you do what you can, your reward is return to growth. The tourism sector is not only on the move for a global goal but also for its survival. Unmitigated climate change would lead to a three-plus degrees Celsius world with devastating impacts of extreme weather events, sea-level rise, floods, droughts, storms and economic decline.
Growth still possible
The fact that tourism can still grow its number of trips, overnight stays and revenue in the TDS is a major argument for the tourism sector to no longer hesitate. That doesn't mean everything can stay the same. The big difference between the Business as Usual Scenario (BUA) and the TDS is that growth comes from segments other than aviation and long-haul travel. In other parts of tourism, there are plenty of options for growth. Growth in that scenario is driven by alternative modes of transportation such as rail, bus, ferry, and (electric) cars and comes even more from short and medium-haul travel as in the business-as-usual scenario would already be the case. Aviation on the other hand will indeed follow a slower growth trajectory until it can fully decarbonize.
Encouraging message for tourism
It is encouraging for the tourism sector that both trips, nights and revenues growth is perfectly possible in the TDS. Growth opportunities exist for short-haul trips, which would increase their share from 69% now to 81% in 2050. The share of long haul must then fall from 6% to 3%, which means the absolute number of those flights stays roughly as it was in 2019. Aviation can still grow slowly in the TDS, but at a slower pace than was usual in the past.
