Tourism in 2035: 4 trends and what organisations can learn from them

Albert Postma, Professor of Applied Sciences in Transformative Foresight in Leisure, Tourism & Hospitality, has spent years exploring the many sides of tourism. His research focuses on how the sector can prepare for developments that could either put tourism under pressure or create new opportunities. Together with Anke Arts, co-director of the Centre of Expertise for Leisure, Tourism & Hospitality (CELTH) and senior researcher at the European Transformative Futures Institute (ETFI), he shares four trends shaping the future of tourism.

1. From endless growth to quality of life

More visitors, more overnight stays, more revenue. For years, that was pretty much the formula for successful tourism. But increasingly, a different question is taking centre stage: what does tourism actually bring to the people who live in a destination? After all, a destination isn't just somewhere people go on holiday. It's also somewhere people call home. "Tourism should no longer be an end in itself," says Anke. "Instead, it should be a way to create a better place for local people to live and work."

What makes tourism beneficial therefore varies from place to place. Amsterdam's city centre has very different needs from the rural areas of Groningen. While the Randstad, the densely populated western part of the Netherlands, doesn't necessarily need more visitors, an increase in tourism could help villages in Groningen keep a small supermarket open, maintain a viable bus service or create jobs for young people.

What can organisations take away from this?

Instead of automatically asking how to attract more visitors, ask which visitors, at what time and in which locations, can contribute to what your region actually needs.

2. Too hot to handle: the rise of the 'coolcation'

Sun, sea and southern Europe. For decades, it's been the perfect holiday combination. But as temperatures rise due to climate change, the sunshine that once attracted visitors could become a reason to stay away. "Mediterranean destinations are becoming too hot, so we're seeing a trend towards people seeking out more northern destinations," Albert explains.

Enter the coolcation: a holiday somewhere with pleasantly cool temperatures. "The northern Netherlands could benefit from this trend," says Albert. "Friesland, Groningen and the Wadden Sea region have something that's becoming increasingly attractive as Europe gets warmer: space, water, nature and comfortable temperatures." But attracting more tourists also means thinking ahead about the consequences. If you only start developing policies once café terraces are overflowing and cycle paths are packed with electric bikes, you're already too late.

What can organisations take away from this?

Make space, comfortable temperatures and access to water key features of your destination's appeal.

3. Nudging: the art of influencing choices

What do you do when one destination is overwhelmed by tourists while another, just 20 kilometres away, remains relatively quiet? You could introduce restrictions on the number of hotels or Airbnb properties. But there's another option: nudging. "Nudging means encouraging tourists to make different choices without them necessarily realising they're being influenced." Take Amsterdam, for example. Why shouldn't someone visiting the lively Dutch capital also explore the cheese market in Alkmaar? "You can connect destinations in a way that makes visitors feel they're still enjoying the same trip, while spreading tourist activity across a much wider area," Albert explains.

The northern Netherlands faces a similar challenge. Every year, large numbers of tourists travel through the coastal region to reach the Wadden Islands, which can become extremely busy. So how do you encourage those visitors to stop and explore along the way? It's an interesting challenge for businesses in coastal areas. What experiences could they offer, and how could they promote them in a way that encourages travellers to venture beyond their planned route?

What can organisations take away from this?

Spread visitor flows by creating attractive alternatives, such as themed routes, art experiences, restaurants or unusual places to stay. Find out what different generations of travellers are looking for and tailor your offer accordingly.

4. Regenerative tourism: leaving a place better than you found it

For years, sustainable tourism was about finding a balance between the benefits of tourism and its negative effects. But that thinking is changing. "Regions now want tourism to make a genuinely positive contribution," says Albert. This is the idea behind regenerative tourism: tourism that actively improves the places people visit. It could be as simple as giving holidaymakers the opportunity to plant a tree. But ideally, it goes much further. Visitors might help restore natural habitats, support local initiatives or connect with residents.

For tourism organisations, this opens up a whole range of possibilities. Could you create a holiday package where guests contribute not only to the local economy through their accommodation, but also to the surrounding landscape? Could local residents play an active role in the visitor experience?

What can organisations take away from this?

Consider what initiatives you could develop to ensure tourism has a lasting, positive impact on your region.

A blind spot in sustainable tourism

Amid all these sustainability initiatives, Anke identifies an important blind spot. "We're trying to encourage the large middle group, around 80 to 90 per cent of people, to choose more sustainable holidays, travel more responsibly or embrace regenerative tourism. But there's just as much to gain from addressing the 5 to 10 per cent who have a much greater negative impact." This group may be smaller, but its environmental impact can be disproportionately large. "The majority of people need to fly less," Anke explains. "But there's also a very small group of people who fly frequently on private jets and have an enormous impact."

No crystal ball, but plenty of ways to prepare

So what will tourism look like in 2035? Albert and Anke can't predict the future. "Predictions hardly ever come true," Albert says. Does that mean organisations should simply wait and see? Quite the opposite. By identifying trends and developments and understanding how they connect, regions and businesses can explore what the future might hold and make choices today that help them respond to change or become less vulnerable to future developments.