What are these four scenarios?
- Scenario 1: A regenerative future (transformation): In 2023, Malta responded to climate change by capping tourist numbers and adopting a regenerative tourism strategy, “Reposition, Realignment and Refocus,” aiming to become the ‘Spiritual Capital of Europe.’ By 2040, this approach transformed its tourism into a climate-positive industry, generating €3.5 billion and employing 32,000 people.
- Scenario 2: A sustainable pathway (growth): Malta’s tourism transitioned to a sustainable model through the 2026 Sustainable Tourism Act, which eliminated unsustainable practices and introduced CO2-based pricing. By 2040, the industry generated €5 billion, employed 52,000 people, and represented 20% of GDP, with Malta ranking 10th in sustainable travel in Europe.
- Scenario 3: Europe’s second class (stagnation): By 2040, Malta's tourism industry has declined, contributing just €1.5 billion to the economy (6% of GDP) and employing 25,000 people. Clinging to outdated practices, it faces decreasing arrivals, a lack of authenticity, and waning investment, with major hotel brands leaving. Government efforts to revive the sector have been insufficient against climate change and geopolitical challenges.
- Scenario 4: No tourism (collapse): By the late 2020s, Malta's tourism industry collapsed due to extreme heat, wildfires, water shortages, and political instability. European tourists shifted to cooler destinations, and by 2040, tourism exists only in small pockets, contributing minimally to the economy with no detailed statistics available.
What is the motivation for the project
Professor Ian Yeoman developed these scenarios to help Malta navigate the uncertain future of its tourism industry, which faces challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and shifting social values. Recognising that traditional tourism models might be unsustainable, the project explores different potential futures for Malta's tourism sector.
What problem does the project solve
By outlining possible future scenarios, it helps Maltese decision-makers plan and adapt to these challenges, ensuring that the tourism sector remains competitive and viable in the face of change.
What is the project approach
The project approach began with a contextual analysis of global tourism and Malta's specific challenges, including the impacts of COVID-19, climate change, and shifting social values. Professor Ian Yeoman developed four distinct scenarios exploring potential futures for Malta's tourism, from transformative changes to possible collapse, focusing on sustainability, new technologies, and global trends. These scenarios were presented at the National Malta Tourism Conference on 6 May 2023, engaging stakeholders and inspiring strategic planning. The goal was to provide Maltese decision-makers with a framework to shape a resilient and thriving tourism sector.
What are the results
The four scenarios are intended to guide the Malta Tourism Authority in planning for future challenges in the tourism sector. By presenting different potential outcomes, these scenarios help them anticipate and address possible threats to Malta's tourism industry. The scenarios will serve as a strategic tool, allowing them to develop and adapt policies that can effectively respond to changing conditions and ensure the sector's resilience and growth.
Next steps: Professor Ian Yeoman is working on a series of publications about the impact of climate change on hotel investment in Malta and a new book about the Future of Tourism in Malta.
Project partners
